Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Valspar Championship preview and best bets

Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Valspar Championship preview and best bets

Five of the world's top 10 remain in the field for a strong renewal of the Valspar Championship, and two of them have eyes on Jon Rahm's number one ranking. Collin Morikawa missed an excellent chance to take it in the Bahamas late last year, and last week it was Viktor Hovland's turn to narrowly miss out, though his late mistakes at Sawgrass were likely nothing to do with anything but matters at hand. He was playing to win one of the most important tournaments of the year, the rankings far from his mind, and looked like he might do so until those short-game frailties returned.

Now, though, both will prepare for the Valspar at Innisbrook's Copperhead Course knowing full well that Rahm is powerless to stop them. It is a factor which is difficult to weigh up but nevertheless significant, and should ensure focus where there might have been temptation to let the mind wander. We are now into the thick of the season and with the Match Play next week, and Augusta soon after that, this would otherwise have been a tournament to conserve rather than spend mental energy.

These are the challenges one has to face in order to reach the summit of any professional sport, so rather than seek to argue against either man, I'll simply say that taking short prices doesn't really appeal. This tournament hasn't been especially kind to favourites down the years but above all else its position in the schedule increases the prospect of another slightly peculiar leaderboard, for all that things should be a little more predictable than that utterly bizarre PLAYERS Championship most of us would like to forget in a hurry.

Sawgrass is tough at the best of times, especially so last week, and perhaps that's why it's been a useless form guide in the short-term. Of course, we don't have to go back far to see evidence of champions who went on to achieve great things later in the year, but history suggests some more creative thinking might be best here, in the aftermath, when many are going to struggle to dust themselves down and go again.

Last year, the Honda Classic followed it and of the 12 players who made up the top 10 and ties, only Sungjae Im (17th Sawgrass, 8th Honda) really held his form. The winner, Matt Jones, had been 55th in The PLAYERS, Brandon Hagy hadn't played in it, and those closest behind such as Denny McCarthy (55th), Russell Henley (MC) and CT Pan (MC) had been non-factors at Sawgrass.

Two years earlier, it was the Valspar which came next, and Paul Casey won it following a missed cut. Louis Oosthuizen went from 56th at Sawgrass to a share second behind Casey, Jason Kokrak sitting alongside him having been just in front a week earlier. Go back another year and the Byron Nelson had its turn, with Aaron Wise (DNP) and Marc Leishman (63rd) dominating.

Fitzpatrick opened at the same price he started at Sawgrass in a far stronger field, and I can't really understand why he's considered similarly likely to win here even having been shaved to 28s. Perhaps it's because he missed the cut in 2018, but his PGA Tour form that spring read MC-30-MC-MC-36-38-14-46 and he's a better player now, his run of top-10 finishes to begin the year only knocked off course by weather which some felt should've seen The PLAYERS suspended.

Fitzpatrick still managed to drive the ball well and gain strokes from tee-to-green, so a good putting week and he'd have been among those to defy a massive draw bias. Instead, the most trustworthy club in his bag happened to let him down and while that will have been frustrating, he should have no trouble shaking it off, safe in the knowledge that those hard yards working on his swing over winter have not suddenly been blown into irrelevance.